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Expert: Canadas winter forecast and the critical factor of El Ni単o

Two people cross-country skiing while holding hands.
Published: 8 December 2023

El Ni単o will be a major contributing factor to how the season ahead plays out. El Ni単o has a reputation for bringing mild winters to much of Canada and it appears that this winter will feature one of thestrongest El Ni単o events on record. So, can we expect a mild winter across the country this year? The answer is not so simple. ()油

Here is an expert from 心頭篇撞 University who can provide comment on this topic:

Djordje Romanic, Assistant Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

Forecasting severe winter weather is challenging. In part due to a myriad of simultaneous processes in the atmosphere-ocean-land system that affect the weather. However, one might expect a milder than average winter 2024 in the west and parts of southcentral Canada. This is due to the current El Ni単o event. Every 3 to 7 years, the cold waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are replaced by anomalously warm water leading to a change in the atmospheric circulation. This phenomenonknown as El Ni単ohas a significant climate and economic influence in the Equatorial Pacific as well as remotely. For instance, El Ni単o sometimes negatively affects the recreation industry in British Columbia and Alberta due to the lack of snow in ski resorts.

Djordje Romanic is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. His research interests include thunderstorm winds, natural hazard modelling, and applications of atmospheric sciences to wind engineering, sustainability, and resilience.

djordje.romanic [at] mcgill.ca (掘稼乙鉛庄壊鞄)

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